Reprinted from The Washington Times , 5am -- April 20, 1998
Robust economy fails to allay fears, insecurity
By Nancy E. Roman
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Despite the booming economy, Republicans and Democrats on the campaign trail are hearing from men and women who are insecure about the future and worried about the job market their children will face.
Dozens of candidates from Alabama to Illinois see their districts as the exception to the rule of low unemployment, economic strength and low inflation.
"There's a lot of turmoil here despite the overall high rev of the economy in general," said Gil Aust, a Republican challenging a Democratic incumbent in northern Alabama.
He said high unemployment plagues the western end of the district. Factories have closed. Reynolds Aluminum has downsized. The Tennessee Valley Authority, one of the district's largest employers, has cut back.
"It might be booming other places, but not here," Mr. Aust said. "It's almost ironic, isn't it?"
David Phelps, a Democrat running for an open seat in southeastern Illinois, said that in barbershops and coffee shops he hears from older people worried their pensions won't be sufficient and young people who "fear they won't have it as good as we did."
"The boom may be felt everywhere in the country, but it sure is not felt here in southern Illinois," said Mr. Phelps, a former schoolteacher who now serves in the state legislature. "That's the main line out of my speeches."
National inflation, according to the Consumer Price Index, has been running at an annual rate of about 1.4 percent. In the first quarter of 1998, unemployment was at an average of 4.7 percent -- the lowest rate since 1970.
But even in areas where the economy is strongest, like northern Kentucky, where the Cincinnati suburbs are booming, candidates pick up economic insecurity.
Ken Lucas, a Democrat running for an open seat there, said the area has seen record low unemployment of 3.5 percent and an explosion of jobs.
"There's almost a euphoria about people working here," he said. "That doesn't mean that, in some quarters, they aren't worried about a plant closing."
Brent Winters, a Republican running in Illinois, says he senses the same uneasiness about jobs as does his Democratic rival, Mr. Phelps.
"Ten thousand coal miners lost their jobs over the last four years," he said. "That makes you insecure."
Computerization and the country's competitive edge in technology are bringing about a transformation of the economy comparable to the industrial revolution. Statistics show that the economy is creating jobs as quickly as it destroys them. But Mr. Winters said it is not always easy to direct those who are laid off into new technology jobs.
In his district in southeastern Illinois, a coal plant closed three years ago, shutting down a $16 million payroll. The government answered with job retraining.
First the government tried to train miners in computers, Mr. Winters said. Hands adept at mining did not fare well on a computer, he remarked. Then there was a program to retrain the miners as lawn mower mechanics.
"But how many lawn mower mechanics can you use?" Mr. Winters asked.
He prefers tax cuts as the answer to economic insecurity -- specifically targeted tax cuts for family businesses.
"If [such businesses] could get a tax credit for $10,000 if they invested it in a new employee, they would hire one, two, three, four," he said. "Otherwise, people are afraid to hire."
Caleb Rossiter, a Democrat challenging Amo Houghton in southern New York, said he has crafted his campaign to respond to people's fear of losing their jobs or of underemployment.
His answer is education.
"My entire campaign is focused on education as the key to families sustaining jobs," Mr. Rossiter said.
He said people are insecure because of the difficulty many have had relocating after a plant closes or cuts back.
"Rubbermaid closed a plant," Mr. Rossiter said. "It's very tough for a 55-year-old laid off from a manufacturing job to get a family-sustaining job."
Mr. Rossiter said people in his district, which stretches 100 miles from Lake Erie to Elmira, used to graduate from high school and go to work in a factory. A recent survey found that the most lucrative and stable jobs in the region now are in physical therapy or computer graphics -- fields that require college training.
"The first thing on their minds is, 'My God, the young people cannot stay here and raise a family like they used to,'" he said.
Gail Riecken, a Democrat running in Indiana, said people are afraid because they cannot graduate from high school and retire 35 years later with good benefits as their parents could.
"That is economic insecurity," she said.
Miss Riecken said parents push their children toward college -- to get skills that will equip them to compete in the information age. But when they return to southwestern Indiana, the available jobs require skills -- not college.
"The reality is, where do they live and what is available there?" she said, noting that Whirlpool and Toyota are among the top employers.
For Miss Riecken, the answer is to increase the minimum wage.
"Although the economy is beautiful, real income is stagnant," she said.
Mr. Aust, an orthopedic surgeon running in Alabama, would rather win jobs through federal highway construction.
"They want to know what one can do to help in terms of bringing jobs," he said. "They recognize that you can bring the infrastructure that will produce jobs."
Mr. Phelps said he is careful not to overpromise.
"When we get out there and do the rhetoric thing, we put the expectation in people's minds that we are going to be the savior, and that is just misleading," he said. "I don't know what the answer is."Copyright 1998 News World Communications, Inc.
Reprinted with permission of
The Washington Times.
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