Reprinted from The Washington Times, March 2, 1998
Governor Bush gets nod
of Dixie Republicans
By Ralph Z. Hallow
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
BILOXI, Miss.
Gov. George W. Bush of Texas won the presidential straw ballot of more than 1,000 Southern Republicans this weekend, taking 18 percent, while his nearest rival, publisher Steve Forbes, a yankee who has never held elective office, took 15 percent.
Dan Quayle, the former vice president, took third place, with 12 percent of the vote. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, the party's top fund-raiser, placed far back in the field in seventh place, with just 6 percent of the vote.
"What really surprised me was that I thought Forbes would be the 18 percent and Bush the 15 percent," said Carolyn Meadows, a Republican National Committee member from Georgia. "People are really talking Forbes here. The Christian groups, the more moderate people. And there's just a lot of rallying for him."
Mr. Gingrich, who has been preparing for a presidential run next year, placed seventh in the Southern Republican Leadership Conference poll, in which 1,106 state, county and local Republican chairmen and members of the Republican National Committee from 13 states from Virginia west through Oklahoma cast ballots.
Offered an opportunity to promote a Gingrich candidacy before the poll, many delegates chose to pass. Asked if Mr. Gingrich has a chance for the nomination, Calvin Teague, a district chairman from Arkansas, paused, then said, "I think it's way too early to talk about that."
The assembled Republicans were asked Saturday night to name their first choice for the party's presidential nomination in 2000.
Many conference delegates said they were not surprised by Mr. Gingrich's poor showing but did not expect to see Sen. Fred Thompson, who placed fourth, do so well.
The Senate Governmental Affairs Committee chairman has made no visible efforts to prepare for a nomination bid, in part because fellow Tennessean Lamar Alexander, the former governor, has been running all out, albeit unofficially.
Mrs. Meadows said she also was surprised at Mr. Thompson's showing. "He's been a great disappointment on the [campaign finance abuse] hearings that he conducted. They've been abysmal."
Mr. Thompson angered many Republicans by turning the hearings, expected to focus on foreign influence and massive illegalities by the Democrats, into a bipartisan inquiry into campaign finance abuses by both parties.
Fifth place in the poll went to Sen. John Ashcroft of Missouri, the favorite of Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson. Mr. Ashcroft won 9 percent, edging Mr. Alexander, who got 8 percent.
Rep. J.C. Watts of Oklahoma, the only black Republican in Congress, placed first for vice president, with 26 percent picking him as their first choice for that slot.
Elizabeth Dole, who once headed the Labor and Transportation departments, placed second for the vice presidential nomination, with 16 percent.
Many delegates shared the view of Tim Lambert, an RNC member from Texas, who said of Mr. Gingrich's presidential chances: "I don't think so. He has alienated his core base of support, conservatives, in his work in Congress. He has failed to push the issues that brought us to power."
The straw poll reflected what rank-and-file Republicans and leaders around the country have said for more than a year: No potential candidate has yet caught the imagination of large numbers of the party's faithful.
Asked about the potential candidates, Mary Jane Rebick, a small-business owner from Little Rock, Ark., found little reason for enthusiasm.
She said she doesn't like Mr. Ashcroft because "as a small-business person, I like to judge people by what they have done. These people who have been in politics forever, that in my opinion have never really worked for a living, I don't think they have a good grip on what goes on in the real world."
How about Mr. Forbes, a businessman, editor and writer? "I don't like him," she said. "He reminds me a little bit of Al Gore. It seems he's been wound up and is there giving his screed."
The delegates also were asked, "Regardless of whom you would like to win, who will win the nomination?" Mr. Bush was first with 31 percent, followed by Mr. Quayle with 14 percent and Mr. Forbes with 11 percent.
Mrs. Meadows said Mr. Gingrich finished poorly in part because few Republicans beyond the Beltway know he is considering a presidential run. "People asked me, 'Why is he on the ballot?'" she said.
Several party leaders who are not enamored of Mr. Gingrich's leadership said privately that they hope he runs for the Oval Office because they believe that would force him to give up the speakership sometime next year.
Others see a different future for him. "Personally, I see [Mr. Gingrich] more in a vice presidential slot," said Janet Rich-Pittman, a delegate from Mobile, Ala.
George W. Burnette III of Atlanta, a retired Armey colonel and one of the few black delegates, said Mr. Gingrich could win the presidential nomination and the general election in 2000 because "he is a visionary, and if his ideas prevail, liberals are out of business."
Mr. Alexander has his enthusiasts, too. Gov. Frank Keating of Oklahoma put him with Mr. Bush and Mr. Forbes in the first tier of Republican hopefuls: "Lamar is extremely bright, a very fine human being who is on a mission. And he's relentless."
Mrs. Meadows said the poll results for vice president didn't surprise her. "J.C. Watts is really popular. Everybody across the board likes him -- the whites, the blacks -- because he talks the talk and walks the walk. He's a fiscal and a social conservative. I think where a lot of the other candidates are really missing is they're not social conservatives, all but Ashcroft."
Of the top seven finishers in the straw poll, only Mr. Bush did not address the conference here.Copyright 1998 News World Communications, Inc.
Reprinted with permission of
The Washington Times.
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